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Strategic Intelligence Analysis Estimative and Warning Intelligence

Strategic Intelligence

The Strategic Intelligence Analysis, Forecasting, Estimative and Warning Intelligence

Course Available August 15, 2020

The course follows the iterative processes of the intelligence lifecycle. Strategic analysis requires a breakdown of the complexity’s analysts face during data examination. Keeping the analysis and results relevant is difficult. Analysts need to find ways to organize, rank, and present their findings. Analyst’s always keep a close eye on what the findings will mean to the stakeholders.

Stakeholders need to understand that analysts always work with incomplete and fragmented data. Adversaries work hard to deny analysts the data. Their methods include various types of deception.

This course provides analysts with a framework reducing many of the problems faced with fragmented data.

This course takes from the best of the intelligence community, academia, years of hands-on activities to move your cyber threat intelligence program to a sustainable model adding real value to all stakeholders. We set students up for success building a model that moves cyber threat intelligence functions to the role of trusted advisor assisting in business decision-making. The course not only educates the student but prepares the student to educate leadership, integrate into corporate business processes, while delivering timely intelligence. We help students get to the point where they really understand the challenges of corporate decision-makers using inside and outside sources.

The course is timely, contextually needed, and moves the market while establishing the cyber threat intelligence analyst as a true discipline greatly needed in all corporate environments.


Your Instructor


Jeff Bardin
Jeff Bardin

Former adjunct professor of Cyber Intelligence, Counterintelligence, and Cybercrime (Utica College) and Information Security Risk Management (Clark University). Experienced in cyber intelligence lifecycle services and support, cyber counterintelligence services and analysis, active defense and cyber operations. Commercially teach Cyber Intelligence (Anonymity, Sockpuppets, Cyber Collection, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, Socio-Cultural Aspects of Intelligence, Lifecycle, Critical Thinking, Cognitive Bias, Methods and Types of Analysis and Methods, Structured Analytic Techniques, Analytic Writing, BLUF/AIMS Delivery, and Dissemination), Jihadist Online Recruitment Methods, cyber influence operations, high-value target development, deception planning, deception operations management, Middle Eastern Cyber Warfare Doctrine, adversary dossier development and social-cultural analysis, jihadist training and gaming as a method of training, information and intelligence sharing, threat intelligence platform selection, non-inclusively.

Jeff Bardin is the Chief Intelligence Officer for Treadstone 71 with clients on 4 continents. In 2007, Jeff received the RSA Conference award for Excellence in the Field of Security Practices. His team also won the 2007 SC Magazine Award – Best Security Team. Jeff sits or has sat on the Board of Boston Infragard, Content Raven, Journal of Law and Cyber Warfare, and Wisegate and was a founding member of the Cloud Security Alliance. Jeff served in the USAF as a cryptologic linguist and in the US Army / US Army National Guard as an armor officer, armored scout platoon leader.

Mr. Bardin has extensive experience in cyber intelligence lifecycle services, program builds, targeted research and support, cyber counterintelligence services and analysis, deception planning, and cyber operations. He teaches Cyber Intelligence and Counterintelligence (Anonymity, Cyber Personas, Collection management, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, Socio-Cultural Aspects of Intelligence, Critical Thinking, Cognitive Bias, Methods and Types of Analysis, Mitre ATT&CK, Structured Analytic Techniques, Analytic Writing, Briefings, and Dissemination), open source intelligence, strategic intelligence, operational/tactical/technical intelligence, and methods in media manipulation identification.

He has BA in Special Studies - Middle East Studies & Language from Trinity College and an MS in Information Assurance from Norwich University. Jeff also attended the Middlebury College Language School for additional language training. Mr. Bardin also spent two+ years studying Russian history, literature, political systems, and language. He lived and worked in the Mediterranean area, Europe, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, the Persian Gulf Region, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Jeff was an adjunct instructor of master’s programs in cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, cybercrime and cyberterrorism at Utica College. Mr. Bardin has also appeared on CNN, CBS News Live, FoxNews, BBCRadio, i24News, BBN, and several other news outlets and has contributed bylines to Business Insider non-inclusively.

We started teaching these courses in 2009 and have continued to update and hone them while maintaining true to the intelligence community standards. We have since built cyber threat intelligence programs for Fortune 500 firms and government organizations on four continents while providing targeted research against adversaries and nation-states.

Treadstone 71:

We founded the company in 2002 and started creating cyber personas and infiltrating al-Qaeda sites collecting information and sharing it with various US-based organizations in 2004. In 2009-10, we started teaching Cyber Intelligence, Cyber CounterIntelligence and Cyber Crime courses at the master’s level at Utica College where we established the intelligence program. After three years of teaching at the academic level, we switched to the commercial space honing the courses to CIA/DIA style tradecraft as aligned to the cyber environment using the skills acquired in 2004. Since that time, we have continued to update the courses using real-world case studies as part of the training.

We have kept the company purposely small and now offer the training courses (www.treadstone71.com/cyber-intelligence-trainingan... www.cyberinteltrainingcenter.com) as well as Cyber Threat Intelligence maturity assessments, strategic and program planning, active research, collection, and reporting. We also perform Threat Intel Platform assessments, selection, and rollout activities for clients. We have clients in the US, EU, Australia, and Asia with active proposals in the Middle East. My personal background is as an Arabic Linguist (USAF / NSA), Russian Linguist, and CISO financial services, government contracts, insurance, and cybersecurity vendors. We have also acted as a critical resource for government CISOs in the past authoring their agency strategic plans, program plans and responding to Congressional inquiries on their behalf.

Jeff has spoken at RSA, NATO CyCon (Estonia), the US Naval Academy, the Air Force Institute of Technology, the Johns Hopkins Research Labs, Hacker Halted, Malaysian Cyberjaya, Secureworld Expo, Hacktivity (Budapest), IS2 Prague, London (RSA), ISSA, Security Camp (Cairo), and several other conferences and organizations.

Mr. Bardin has authored books and contributed chapters to several other books most recently Current and Emerging Trends in Cyber Operations from George Washington University. Recently edited and provided content for Understanding Computers: Today and Tomorrow by Deborah Morley, Charles S Parker - 11th edition (March 2006 release). Reviewer for Building an Information Security Risk Management Program from the Ground Up (Evan Wheeler), Author Chapter 33 Computer Information Security Handbook 5th Edition - SAN Security. Author Chapter on Satellite Security - Computer Information Security Handbook 6th Edition. Author - The Illusion of Due Diligence - Notes from the CISO Underground (April 2010 release).

Treadstone 71 is a pure play intelligence company focusing on targeted research of adversaries building in-depth dossiers recording methods, tactics, techniques, procedures, known associates, memberships and psychological profiles. We author Current, Research/Foundational, Advisories, STEMPLES Plus, and Estimative Intelligence reports. We create profiles of high value targets including ‘know your customer’ profiles delivering assessments and gaps in protections with recommendations and opportunities.

We are known for building Strategic Intelligence Programs from vision, mission, guiding principles, goals, objectives, 36-month plans, policies, procedures, process flows, SOPs, KPIs, CSFs, training and awareness programs for intelligence. We also help establish internal intelligence community programs from technical and tactical to operational and strategic including physical, competitive, business, and cyber.

We have taught classes to and/or worked with/for:

AIB, American Express, Capital One, NATO, Belgian Military Intelligence, Commonwealth Bank, Bank of America, ING, NCSC NL, American Electric Power, Nationwide, Battelle, Standard Chartered, Columbus Collaboratory, Anomali, Defense Security Services, PNY, Dell Secureworks, HPE Security, EclecticIQ, Darkmatter (AE), General Electric, General Motors, PNC, Sony, Goldman Sachs, NASA, DoD, East West Bank, Naval Air Warfare Center, VISA, USBank, Wyndham Capital, Egyptian Government, DNB Norway, Euroclear, Malaysian Cyberjaya, People's United Bank, Baupost Group, Bank of North Carolina, Cardinal Health, Huntington, L Brands, OhioHealth, Fidelity Investments, Citi, Citigroup, T. Rowe Price, Wells Fargo, Davis Polk, Thrift Savings Plan, Discover, Equifax, Blackknight Financial Services, Schwab, GM, FRB, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Citizens Financial Group, Cleveland Clinic, Scottrade, MetLife, NY Life, Essent, Harvard University, Charles River Associates, Synchrony Financial, In-Q-Tel, TD Ameritrade, First Citizens Bank, M&T Bank, Western & Southern, American National Bank of TX, National Reconnaissance Office, OCBC Bank Singapore, Spentera, FBI, W.R. Berkley, F-Secure, People’s United Bank, Stellar Solutions, Lockheed Martin, Harvard Pilgrim, Symantec, State of Florida, Deloitte, Ernst and Young, Mitsubishi UFG Trust and Banking Corporation, Target, Tri Counties Bank, Mass Mutual, Tower Research, Latham and Watkins LLP, Geller & Company, KeyBank, Northern Trust, Fannie Mae, BB&T, Blue Cross Blue Shield Michigan, Farm Credit Services of America, Aviation ISAC, Regions Financial Corporation, Intercontinental Exchange (The ICE), Vista Equity Partners, JP Morgan Chase, Archer Daniels Midland, Nacha, Barclays, Options Clearing Corporation (OCC), Expo2020, Abu Dhabi Smart Solution's and Services Authority, Merck & Co., Inc Nomura International, ING, Finance CERT Norway, iPipeline, BBVA, PenFED, Santander, Bank of America, Equifax, BNY Mellon, UBS Group, OCC, Verizon, Vantiv, Raymond James, Bridgewater Associates, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, BBVA, Promontory Interfinancial Network, Bank of Canada, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, Ocean First Bank, International Exchange, Splunk, Vero Skatt, Ernst & Young, Relativity, Ultimate Software, Vista Equity Partners, Aetna, QBE Insurance Group, ACI Universal Payments, Betaalvereniging Nederland, Dutch Police, Motorola Solutions, Intel Corporation, Salesforce, Singapore Ministry of Defence, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), National Australia Bank Limited, non-inclusively (as well as several other firms by proxy as they hire qualified intelligence professionals trained by Treadstone 71).

Focus on targeted research of adversaries building in-depth dossiers recording methods, tactics, techniques, procedures, known associates, memberships and psychological profiles. Author Current, Research/Foundational, PESTELI, deception planning and operations, psychological operations, and Estimative Intelligence reports. Create profiles of high value targets including ‘know your customer’ profiles delivering assessments and gaps in protections with recommendations and opportunities.

Strategic Intelligence Program builds from vision, mission, guiding principles, goals, objectives, 36-month plans, policies, procedures, process flows, SOPs, KPIs, CSFs, training and awareness programs for intelligence. Building internal intelligence community programs from technical and tactical to operational and strategic including physical, competitive, business, and cyber.


Course Curriculum


  First Section
Available in days
days after you enroll

Frequently Asked Questions


When does the course start and finish?
Course availability date: July 1, 2020 After July 1 - On-Demand 8 Weeks Minimum Time to complete - Expandible upon request 40 CPEs - Hands-on Case Studies
How long do I have access to the course?
8 Weeks Minimum Expandible upon request

How is this course different from the Certified Threat Intelligence Analyst – Cyber Intelligence Tradecraft Certification course?

We found a need to assist organizations best understand the strategic functions of intelligence. Although there is some overlap in this course, the course goes into greater depth expanding well beyond traditional IT-type threat intelligence building the foundation for supporting decision-making outside of IT. There is some review for those who have taken previous Treadstone 71 courses but this course is the natural next steps in establishing a resilience, and sustainable cyber threat intelligence program. The course moves the functions and capabilities to a valid corporate asset.

Will the course offer the same types of hands-on exercises that make Treadstone 71 training the gold standard?

We deliver several hands-on exercises complete with templates and examples. Our intent is to send each student back to their corporate environments armed with the knowledge necessary to immediately enhance their existing programs or, start new programs with a foundation rooted in excellence.

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

ESTIMATIVE AND WARNING ANALYSIS

Data, Information, Knowledge and Intelligence

The Role of Warning Intelligence

Knowledge Generation

Key Warning Factors in Preparations

Explicitly versus Tacit Knowledge

What Is Warning?

Principles of Knowledge Management

Intentions versus Capabilities

Monitoring your Business Environment

The function of Warning Intelligence

Analysis Projects

Indicators and Indications

Analysis Cycle

Strategic versus Tactical Warning

Briefing

What is a Warning?

The Management Brief

Warning as an Assessment of Probabilities

Starting the Project

Warning as a Judgment for the Stakeholder

Project Brief Checklist

Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications

Collection Planning

Fundamentals of Indications Analysis

Attributes of Sources - Source-Centered Collection Plan

Compiling Indications

The Collection Plan

Use of Indicator Lists

Segmentation of Sources

Extracting Indications Data

Valuation of Sources

The Nature of Cyber Indicators

Separating Rumor from Fact

Cyber Indications and Warnings

Using Social Media like a Police Scanner

The Nature of Cyber Indicators

Monitoring and Verifying

Importance of Cyber Indicators

Image Verification

Indications Chronology

Video Verification

Specifics of the Analytical Method

Using the Crowd

Presumption of Surprise

Verification Process and Checklists

Scope of Relevant Information

Verification Tools

Objectivity and Realism

Intelligence Requirements

Need to Reach Immediate Conclusions

Prioritization

Inference, Deduction and Induction

Essential Elements of Information

Acceptance of New Data

Indicators

Understanding How the Adversary Thinks

Specific Information Requirements

Consideration of Various Hypotheses

Glossary and Taxonomy

How Might they Go to Cyber War?

Mission and Requirements Management

Order of Cyber Battle Analysis in a Crisis Situation

Tools to Use

Cyber Order of Battle Methods

Data to Collect

Analysis of Cyber Mobilization

Iterative and Continuous Feedback Loop

Recognition of Cyber Buildup

The Data Collection Plan

Preparation for Cyber Warfare

Executing the Plan

Key Warning Factors in Preparations

Collection from Friendly or Neutral Sources

The preoccupation of Leadership / Stakeholders

HUMINT

Cyber Readiness

Free-flow (Cooperation, rules, benefits, risks & issues, analysis)

Exercises for Preparation versus Cyber Deployment

Interviewing (Cooperation, rules, benefits, risks & issues, analysis)

Magnitude and Redundancy of Preparations

Sampling (Cooperation, rules, benefits, risks & issues)

Cyber Wargaming

Networking (Cooperation, rules, benefits, risks & issues)

What is a Cyber Wargame

Protecting your Sources

Why run a Cyber Wargame

Across Cultural Barriers

Objectives

Collecting from Unsuspecting Sources

Success Factors

Passive Collection

Common flow

Elicitation (Cooperation, rules, benefits, risks & issues)

Common problems in setting up and running

Elicitor - Qualities - Cyber Appearance

STEMPLES Plus

Collection from Public Domain

Social, Technical, Economic, Military, Political, Legislative, Educational, Security

Anatomy of OSINT

Plus (Demographic, Religion, Psychological, catchall)

Spelling, Singular/Plural, Acronyms, Jargon, History, Synonyms, Quasi-Synonyms

Indicators of Change as Applied to STEMPLES Plus

Applications of OSINT

The ambiguity of STEMPLES Plus Indicators

OSINT overload - Focus

A Problem of Perception

Collection from Images

Considerations in STEMPLES Plus Warning

Picture Analysis

The Relative Weight of STEMPLES Plus Factors

How to apply Intelligence from Image Collection

Maintaining your STEMPLES Plus Indicators of Change

When to do so

Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications

Imagery Intelligence output

Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence

Collection from Things

Hofstede Principles

Back end collection and analysis

Hofstede as Applied to STEMPLES Plus

Where to apply the collection

Adversary Baseball Cards

When and How to apply the collection

Country, Group, Campaign, Individuals

Collection Outsourcing

Reconstructing the Adversary's Decision-making Process

Analysis

Benching marking your adversary

Introduction

Adversary TTPs

Attributes of strategic analysis

Adversary Profiling

Collector - Analyst Relationship

Adversary Supply Chain

Collector-Analyst Differences - Corporate alignment - All as one

Skills and Education

Strategic Analysis Cycle

Tools and Their Application

Anatomy of Analysis

Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise

Where, who, when, why, and how

Examples of Assessing Timing

Pitfalls

Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence

Common pitfalls in analysis

The Problem of Deception

Bias

Infrequency and Neglect of Deception

Ethnocentric

Principles, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception

Wishful Thinking

Types of Deception

Status quo

Countering Deception

Herding

Judgments and Corporate Policy

Previous Judgments

Facts Don't “Speak For Themselves’’

Conventional wisdom

What Do Top Stakeholders Need, and Want, to Know?

Data and meta data

Intelligence in Support of Policy?

Data QA

Assessing Probabilities

Data processing and QC

Improving Warning Assessments

Data Credibility

Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting

Source Validity

General Warning Principles

Data and Source Relevance

Most Frequent Impediments to Warning

Scoring Methods

Data Preparation

Appendix A – FORMS

Managing incomplete data

Key Assumptions

Managing conflicting data

Indicators / Observables Matrix

Weighing Data

Threat Situational Awareness

Working with experts -

Detection Indicators – Threat and Disposition

Data Quantity versus Quality

Threat Type – Description – Disposition

Misperceiving Events

Priority Intelligence Requirements – Collection Planning

Premature closing

Kill Chain Phase

Confusing causality and correlation

Types of Analysis

Flawed analogies

Decomposition

Functions and Responsibilities

Link Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques

Pattern Analysis

Link analysis/network charts

Trend Analysis

Timeline/Chronology

Technical Baseline

Network Analysis

Functional Baseline

Brainstorming

Cultural Baseline

Structured Brainstorming

Tendency Analysis

Virtual Brainstorming

Cultural Analysis

Nominal Group Technique

Anomaly analysis

Starbursting

Semiotic Analysis

Cross-Impact Matrix

Anticipatory Analysis

Morphological Analysis

Volatility Analysis

Quadrant Crunching

Supply Chain Analysis

Scenario Analysis

Recomposition

Mechanics of Scenario Analysis

Synthesis

When and why to plan

Analyst - Stakeholder Interaction

Success factors

Uncertainty

Design principles

Decision-making strategies

Attributes of a good scenario

Challenges

Flow of a Scenario Exercise

Moving towards a Trusted Advisor Role

Pitfalls in Scenario Analysis

Cherry picking

Alternative Futures Analysis

Yes Manship

Indicators

Groupthink

Indicators Validator

Compliance Mandatory - Ethics as Identity

Hypothesis Generation

Legislation

Formulation and testing

Scope of compliance and ethics in analysis

Theories, Forecasts

Code of ethics for strategic analysis

Testing

Organizing a Strategic Analysis Function

The Multiple Hypotheses Generator

Getting started

Diagnostic Reasoning

Structure after strategy

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

The right structure enables efficient/effective execution

Argument Mapping

Centralized versus Decentralized - a comparison

Deception Detection

Organizing a solid team

Key Assumptions Check

Design principles

Outside In Thinking

Functional and behavioral competency building

Pre-Mortem Assessment

Towards a world-class strategic analysis organization

What If? Analysis

Five Levels of Strategic Analysis Professionalism

High Impact, Low Probability

Profile of an analyst

Devil’s Advocacy

Functional competencies

Force Field Analysis

Behavioral competencies

Maps

Measuring competencies - Competency models

Flow charts

Job descriptions and hiring questions

Frequency charts

Accountability, Key Activities, Results

Story boards

Appendices


This course teaches students how to think independently and stay away from the low-level tactical approaches we see in daily reports. Strategic, big-picture reviews and assessments that incorporate the social, technical, economic, military, political, legislative, educational, and security, plus demographics, religion and the psychometric (STEMPLES Plus) aspects of an adversary are lost in today's world of current news posing as intelligence. Lecture, Hands-on, Apprenticeship, in-class exercises, student presentations, analytic products, templates, course material—40 CPEs.

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