TREADSTONE 71  //  CYBER INTELLIGENCE TRAINING CENTER  //  SELF-PACED

Foresight: Estimative and Predictive Intelligence

Expertise. Knowledge. Ahead of the crowd.

Estimate the present. Explore the futures. Design the options. Keep score. Treadstone 71 built the course for analysts who brief decisions under uncertainty and want to be scored on the result, not the prose.

37 NARRATED VIDEOS12 METHOD LABSGRADED CAPSTONEUP TO 24 CPE
TUITION
$2,499USD
or 3 payments of $875
24CPE maximum
About 12 CPE for video and knowledge checks. Up to 24 with exercises, labs and the capstone.
Self-paced. Enroll through the Teachable checkout on the page.
11.3
HOURS OF NARRATED VIDEO
37
LESSON AND METHOD VIDEOS
1,048
INSTRUCTOR SLIDES
12
FORECASTING METHODS WITH LABS
146
STUDENT FILES
24
CPE, MAXIMUM
WHY FORESIGHT, WHY NOW

Say how likely. Say how sure.

Most intelligence products fail in one sentence: the estimate. "Possible" means 20 percent to one reader and 70 percent to the next. Leaders then decide on a number nobody wrote down.

Foresight fixes the sentence first. You learn to state likelihood in standard probability bands, attach a confidence level, and log every call so the record shows who earned trust.

Then the course moves forward in time. Scored forecasts. Early-warning indicators. Scenarios with triggers. Twelve methods that spot emergence before it becomes the headline. Ahead of the crowd is a measurable position, and the course teaches you to hold it.

SHERMAN KENT PROBABILITY BANDS (PERCENT)
Almost no chance
1 to <5
Highly unlikely
5 to <15
Unlikely
15 to <45
Roughly even chance
45 to <55
Likely
55 to <85
Highly likely
85 to <95
Almost certain
95 to 99
House standard taught in Lesson 1.3. Half-open intervals, so every number lands in exactly one band.
WHAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DO

Leave with a method, a record and a voice leaders trust.

01

Speak in numbers

Replace "possible" and "we assess" with calibrated probability bands and a stated confidence level a decision maker reads one way.

02

Build a foresight pipeline

Move from collection to estimate to scenario to decision, with checkpoints that catch bias before it ships.

03

Run twelve methods on real cases

Anomaly injection, convergence forecasting, red teaming, entropy scoring, STEMPLES Plus entanglement and seven more, each with lab data.

04

Keep score

Write questions that resolve, track Brier scores, and calibrate your team against its own record.

05

Join people and models

Weight human judgment and machine output on the same question, then measure which one earned the trust.

06

Brief the decision

Turn a forecast into options, triggers and indicators a leader acts on inside the decision window.

CURRICULUM

Four sections. Twenty-five lessons. One capstone.

Every lesson is a narrated video with downloadable files. Section 3 pairs each method lesson with a method-kit video and a lab you run yourself. Open a section to see the lessons.

SECTION 1Foundations3 LESSONS+

Why foresight needs an architecture, where the discipline came from, and how to state likelihood and confidence the same way every time.

  • 1.1Introduction to Foresight ArchitectureEstimate the present. Explore the futures. Design the options. Keep score.
  • 1.2Historical FoundationsFrom omens to scored forecasts: how estimation, prediction and emergence thinking were built, and when.
  • 1.3Estimative IntelligenceSay how likely, say how sure, and say it so every reader takes it the same way.
SECTION 2Building the Foresight Capability9 LESSONS+

Mindset, workflow and the research programs that proved forecasting skill is measurable and trainable.

  • 2.1MindsetHabits, bias immunity, decision hygiene, story weight, shared models, structured dissent and rehearsal.
  • 2.2Integration and ExecutionWire foresight into repeatable decisions, then run the work so its quality gets measured.
  • 2.3Predictive and Foresight CapabilityDesign thinking and structured foresight, joined into habits a team measures.
  • 2.4Open Source IndicatorsPublic data as early warning for unrest, outbreaks and crises, and how the warnings were judged.
  • 2.5Good Judgment ProjectWhat a four-year forecasting tournament proved about training, teams and top scorers.
  • 2.6Hybrid: Human and Machine ForecastingPut people and models on the same question. Weight them. Score the result.
  • 2.7Forecasting as Structured DisciplineTurn judgment into numbers you score, combine, check and improve.
  • 2.8ACE: Aggregative Contingent EstimationHow an intelligence research program turned crowds of forecasters into one scored estimate.
  • 2.9Aggregate and SummarizeLock in what Section 2 built, then map the twelve methods of Section 3.
SECTION 3Twelve Foresight Methods12 LESSONS + 12 METHOD KITS+

Each method ships as a narrated lesson, a narrated method kit, a lab data set and a worksheet. You run the method on a case, not just read about it.

  • 3.1Algorithmic Anomaly Injection (AAI)Break your forecast on purpose, in a drill, before events break it for you.
  • 3.2Narrative Resonance Mapping (NRM)Find which stories land, with whom, and for how long. Then act once.
  • 3.3Emergent Convergence Forecasting (ECF)Watch independent evidence streams. Act when they begin to agree.
  • 3.4Strategic Polarity Oscillation (SPO)Find where the swing is. Name the phase. Act to fit it.
  • 3.5Cyber Holography Analysis (CHA)Turn one incident into four views, then brief the decision in a day.
  • 3.6Possibility Prism Method (PPM)Turn one uncertain problem through four lenses. Then decide once.
  • 3.7Resonant Red Teaming (RRT)Argue the opponent's case before they do. Then decide.
  • 3.8Entropy to Order Forecasting (EOF)Score the disorder and pick moves that hold whichever future wins.
  • 3.9Adversarial Emergence Simulation (AES)Let simple actors loose on your forecast and watch what they build.
  • 3.10Cognitive Divergence Index (CDI)Score the gap between what leaders believe and what the signals show.
  • 3.11STEMPLES Entanglement Mapping (SEM)Find where drivers move together. Score the knots, then forecast them.
  • 3.12Strategic Friction Forecasting (SFF)Find the friction. Forecast the slip.
SECTION 4Capstone1 LESSON+

Prove it under pressure.

  • 4.1Capstone: Red Team versus Blue Team Foresight ExerciseTwo teams, one synthetic scenario, three scored rounds. State a number and live with the result. Solo variant for self-paced students. Pass mark 70.
FORECAST PROBABILITY OBSERVED FREQUENCY TRAINED UNTRAINED PERFECT
Illustrative calibration chart. The dashed line is a perfectly calibrated forecaster.
KEEP SCORE

Forecasting is a skill. Skills get scored.

Section 2 walks through the research programs that settled the question. The Good Judgment Project ran inside IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program and showed forecasting accuracy improves with training, teaming and aggregation. Open Source Indicators and hybrid human and machine forecasting carried the scoring into early warning and models.

You learn to write questions that resolve, compute Brier scores, read a calibration curve and aggregate a team's estimates into one number. Then you apply the habit to every method in Section 3.

BRIER SCORESCALIBRATIONAGGREGATIONRESOLVABLE QUESTIONS
SECTION 3  //  THE METHODS

Twelve methods. Each one run on a case.

Twelve methods built by Treadstone 71. Every one ships with a narrated lesson, a narrated method kit, lab data and a worksheet. STEMPLES Plus, the Treadstone 71 driver framework, anchors the entanglement method.

AAILESSON 3.1

Algorithmic Anomaly Injection

Break your forecast on purpose, in a drill, before events break it for you.

NRMLESSON 3.2

Narrative Resonance Mapping

Find which stories land, with whom, and for how long. Then act once.

ECFLESSON 3.3

Emergent Convergence Forecasting

Watch independent evidence streams. Act when they begin to agree.

SPOLESSON 3.4

Strategic Polarity Oscillation

Find where the swing is. Name the phase. Act to fit it.

CHALESSON 3.5

Cyber Holography Analysis

Turn one incident into four views, then brief the decision in a day.

PPMLESSON 3.6

Possibility Prism Method

Turn one uncertain problem through four lenses. Then decide once.

RRTLESSON 3.7

Resonant Red Teaming

Argue the opponent's case before they do. Then decide.

EOFLESSON 3.8

Entropy to Order Forecasting

Score the disorder and pick moves that hold whichever future wins.

AESLESSON 3.9

Adversarial Emergence Simulation

Let simple actors loose on your forecast and watch what they build.

CDILESSON 3.10

Cognitive Divergence Index

Score the gap between what leaders believe and what the signals show.

SEMLESSON 3.11

STEMPLES Entanglement Mapping

Find where drivers move together. Score the knots, then forecast them.

SFFLESSON 3.12

Strategic Friction Forecasting

Find the friction. Forecast the slip.

WHAT YOU GET

Everything you need to run the work, not just watch it.

37 narrated videos

25 lesson videos plus 12 method-kit walk-throughs, 11 hours 21 minutes in total.

12 method labs

Teaching-case data sets with worksheets, built so the right answer comes from the method, not a guess.

Exercise briefs and worksheets

Hands-on work for every Section 1 and Section 2 lesson.

146 student files

Templates, worksheets, lab data and reference sheets you keep.

Graded capstone

Red versus Blue, three scored rounds, solo variant for self-paced students.

Instructor support

Submit assignments and email info@treadstone71.com on upload. Office hours scheduled as required.

TUITION AND CPE

$2,499. Up to 24 CPE.

One enrollment, self-paced. Pay $2,499 USD at checkout, or split it into 3 payments of $875.

About 12 CPE come from the video and knowledge checks. Complete the exercises, the twelve labs and the capstone to claim up to 24. Self-report hours under the rules of your certifying body, such as ISC2, ISACA or CompTIA.

Veteran and team pricing applies to individual courses. Email info@treadstone71.com before you enroll. Organizations that need seats across the catalog should ask about the Treadstone 71 Enterprise Subscription.

Enroll through the Teachable checkout on the page.
Narrated video, 37 lessons and kits11.3
Knowledge checks0.7
Section 1 and 2 exercises and worksheets3.0
Twelve method labs6.0
Capstone exercise3.0
Maximum CPE24.0
YOUR INSTRUCTOR

Jeff Bardin

FOUNDER AND CHIEF INTELLIGENCE OFFICER, TREADSTONE 71

Fourteen years of US military service across the Air Force and Army, enlisted and officer: cryptologic linguist, then armored scout platoon leader. Degree in Middle East Studies and a Norwich University MSIA. Built the cyber intelligence, cyber counterintelligence and cybercrime academic programs at Utica University.

Creator of the STEMPLES Plus framework and author of The Mind Domain and Tradecraft at Machine Speed. Read the full bio or see his books.

TREADSTONE 71

Woman-owned, veteran-led cyber and strategic intelligence training and consulting since 2002. Clients include critical infrastructure operators across the United States, Europe, Australia, Singapore and the Middle East.

treadstone71.com  ·  Intelligence briefs

ENROLLMENT ELIGIBILITY

Enrollment is open to students in the United States, NATO and EU member states, and allied nations. Treadstone 71 verifies every enrollment and enforces access controls.

FAQ

Questions answered.

What is the difference between estimative and predictive intelligence?+

Estimative intelligence describes the structure of uncertainty now: how likely an outcome is and how confident the analyst is, stated in standard probability bands. Predictive intelligence projects forward: it builds scored forecasts, scenarios and early-warning indicators. The course teaches estimation first, then prediction, then the methods that detect emergence.

How many CPE credits does the course carry?+

About 12 CPE for the narrated video and knowledge checks, and up to 24 CPE when you complete the exercises, the twelve method labs and the capstone. Self-report the hours under your certifying body's rules (for example ISC2, ISACA or CompTIA).

How much does the course cost?+

$2,499 USD, or 3 payments of $875 through the Teachable checkout on the page. Veteran and team pricing for individual courses is available through info@treadstone71.com.

How long does the course take?+

The video runs 11 hours 21 minutes across 37 lessons and method kits. Plan on about 24 hours in total to finish the exercises, the twelve labs and the capstone for full CPE credit. The pace is yours.

Who should take the course?+

Intelligence analysts, cyber threat intelligence leads, strategic planners, risk and resilience teams, and managers who brief decisions under uncertainty. Experience with structured analytic techniques helps but is not required.

Is the course taught by a real instructor?+

Yes. Jeff Bardin, founder and Chief Intelligence Officer of Treadstone 71, built the course and answers student submissions. Treadstone 71 has trained intelligence teams since 2002.

Who is eligible to enroll?+

Enrollment is open to students in the United States, NATO and EU member states, and allied nations. Treadstone 71 verifies every enrollment and enforces access controls.

Does the course connect to other Treadstone 71 training?+

Yes. Foresight pairs with Structured and Advanced Structured Analytic Techniques, Strategic Intelligence Analysis, Analytic Writing and the Russian STEMPLES Plus course. Bundles and Stacks are listed above.

FORESIGHT: ESTIMATIVE AND PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Expertise. Knowledge. Ahead of the crowd.

$2,499 USD or 3 payments of $875. Up to 24 CPE. Self-paced, with instructor review of your submissions.

ENROLL THROUGH THE TEACHABLE CHECKOUT ON THE PAGE
TREADSTONE 71, LLC  ·  HALF MOON BAY, CA  ·  PAGE UPDATED OCTOBER 29, 2026

Your Instructor


Treadstone 71
Treadstone 71

Treadstone 71 is a woman and veteran-owned small business exclusively focused on cyber and threat intelligence consulting, services, and training. We are a pure-play intelligence shop.

Training dates and locations here

Since 2002, Treadstone 71 delivers intelligence training, strategic, operational, and tactical intelligence consulting, and research. We provide a seamless extension of your organization efficiently and effectively moving your organization to cyber intelligence program maturity. Our training, established in 2008, follows intelligence community standards as applied to the ever-changing threat environment delivering forecasts and estimates as intelligence intends. From baseline research to adversary targeted advisories and dossiers, Treadstone 71 products align with your intelligence requirements. We do not follow the create once and deliver many model. We contextually tie our products to your needs. Intelligence is our only business.

  • We use intuition, structured techniques, and years of experience.
  • We supply intelligence based on clearly defined requirements.
  • We do not assign five people to do a job only one with experience.
  • We do not bid base bones only to change order you to overspending.
We do not promise what we cannot deliver. We have walked in your shoes. We understand your pressures.

We are known for our ability to:

  • Anticipate key target or threat activities that are likely to prompt a leadership decision.
  • Aid in coordinating, validating, and managing collection requirements, plans, and activities.
  • Monitor and report changes in threat dispositions, activities, tactics, capabilities, objectives as related to designated cyber operations warning problem sets.
  • Produce timely, fused, all-source cyber operations intelligence and indications and warnings intelligence products (e.g., threat assessments, briefings, intelligence studies, country studies).
  • Provide intelligence analysis and support to designated exercises, planning activities, and time-sensitive operations.
  • Develop or recommend analytic approaches or solutions to problems and situations for which information is incomplete or no precedent exists.
  • Recognize and mitigate deception in reporting and analysis.
    Assess intelligence, recommend targets to support operational objectives.
  • Assess target vulnerabilities and capabilities to determine a course of action.
  • Assist in the development of priority information requirements.
  • Enable synchronization of intelligence support plans across the supply chain.
  • ...and Review and understand organizational leadership objectives and planning guidance non-inclusively.

Course Curriculum


  Intro - Historical Foundations
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  Foresight Architecture - Integration - Capabilities - Execution
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  Advanced Methods - Structured Analysis
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  Capstone - Red and Blue Exercise
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Frequently Asked Questions


When does the course start and finish?
The course starts now we give you up to 12 months if necessary.
What if I am unhappy with the course?
We would never want you to be unhappy! If you are unsatisfied with your purchase, contact us in the first 5 days and we will give you a full refund as long as you have not gone beyond the Intro lesson.

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